October 5th, 2008
Techies choose Obama - by a landslide
If techies could choose the next President, Obama would win in a landslide. Checking donors from 10 large tech companies, including Apple, Dell, Google and Microsoft, over 90% of the donations support the senator from Illinois. Why does high-tech love Obama?
First the numbers
The OpenSecrets.org Donor Lookup page supplied the numbers. When you make a political contribution you are required to give your employer’s name.
Just pick the Presidential candidate, put in an employer name, and hit OK. Voila! All the contributors who gave that company as their employer are listed in the records.
The numbers need some cleaning. For example, if 1 person gave 3 donations, that is listed as 3 records. Also, returned donations are another record that don’t indicate another donor.
I cleaned up the Obama numbers by pulling out returned donation numbers, donations from companies with similar names and some of the single donor/multiple donation records, something I didn’t do for McCain because his numbers are so weak.
McCain’s policies
Why are in-the-know techies like Vint Cerf and YouTube founder Chad Hurley supporting Obama? Maybe it has something to do with the policies each promotes.
The most obvious tech difference between the candidates is the Obama supports net-neutrality and McCain is against it. The Electronic Frontier Foundation noted press reports that of the 66 current or former lobbyists working for McCain, 23 have lobbied for telcos.
As Commerce Committee chairman until last year, McCain could have pushed for aggressive broadband policies to keep the US in the forefront of Internet deployment and commerce. Instead the US is falling further behind in both speed and penetration among industrialized nations.
McCain also flip-flopped on retroactive immunity for illegal warrantless wiretapping. He was against it last year and this year offered “unqualified” support. Obama also voted for the bill, but at least he knows the Constitutional problems.
Obama’s policies
Besides consistent support for net-neutrality, Obama also supports a number of tech-friendly initiatives:
- Deploy next generation broadband and ensure access as we did decades ago with electricity and telephones.
- Major expansion of university-based research
- Patent system reform through PTO funding increases and citizen review.
- Scientific integrity “Obama and Biden will restore the basic principle that government decisions should be based on the best-available, scientifically-valid evidence and not on the ideological predispositions of agency officials or political appointees.”
- Green energy development through a $150 billion program for biofuels, plug-in hybrids and commercial renewable energy.
The Storage Bits take
Conservative columnist George Will noted McCain’s “. . . impulsive, intensely personal reactions to people and events . . . .” If Obama loses - and I think he will - the computer industry will suffer McCain’s anger for their lop-sided support of Obama.
The telco’s will enjoy free rein in the White House. The world’s most creative and sophisticated tech innovators will be hobbled by a 3rd rate network infrastructure. Who is that good for?
Looking at the numbers, the surprising thing was how few people bothered to donate to either candidate. The 10 companies employ over 500,000 people; just over 3,000 contributed to either campaign. Wake up, people!
Comments welcome, of course. I
October 1st, 2008
How to read your FBI file
As part of the occasional series Life in post-Constitutional America I’m pleased to offer a brief primer on How to read your FBI file. It isn’t as easy as you’d think, since the FBI has failed several times to create a modern data management system - which may not be a bad thing.
You can get your FBI file thanks to the Freedom of Information Act or FOIA, a creation of terrorist-coddling liberals. The Freedom of Governmental Secrecy Act or FOGS will fix this by extending “Executive Privilege” to every agency and operation of the Executive branch. How can the government protect us from millions of crazed jihadists without total secrecy?
I should note that you probably don’t have an FBI file unless you’ve engaged in suspect activities such as petitioning the government for redress of grievances or protesting unreasonable searches. God-fearing patriotic Americans have no worries unless the data entry clerk is hung over or you have a foreign name.
File contents
Most of your file will consist of messages between the Feeb’s HQ in Washington DC and one of the 56 local field offices or the many local Resident Agencies (we should have one on every block!). Aided by the finest communication technology money can buy, these messages may be teletypes or snail mail.
Types of messages
- Administrative - boring, usually.
- Prosecutive summary - you in big trouble now, liberal bed-wetter or criminal mastermind. Hire a defense lawyer or flee to Namibia.
- Investigative report - 50 pages of detail on you, your wife, your mistress, girlfriends, children and other unsavory contacts and activities, that is forwarded to military intelligence, the Attorney General, the White House and carefully vetted journalists and bloggers.
- Miscellaneous - court documents, like divorce papers; credit reports; incorporation documents; military records; surveillance transcripts; and other security agency reports.
Naturally, you can be sure that all of this data is of the absolute highest quality, like the pre-Iraq war WMD intelligence. Mistakes are always corrected, but it may take a few years.
FBI filing system
You’d think that the nation’s leading domestic law enforcement agency would employ sophisticated data management technology - but you’d be wrong. For example, HQ and each field office maintains its own file system - so file #12-3456 at HQ and file #12-3456 in the New York field office may be completely unrelated.
To paper this over the Feeb’s use a 3 part code: an offense code (sample: 332 Media Leak); an office code - and a 3 to 6 digit file number.
The offense code gets created locally, so related files might have different offense codes assigned by different offices. Sounds like an administrative nightmare, but it can help you track the Agency’s thinking about your case as the codes change over time.
Reading the file
As you go through the file, look for other file numbers. Then you can file an FOIA request for those as well. Don’t assume that all the files contain the same information - the FBI doesn’t have a centralized database - so collect them all.
The individual documents in your file are called “serials.” It could be a 2 sentence teletype or a 50 page report. Most are given a serial number that starts at 1, but don’t assume that serial #1 is the earliest document in the file.
Check for missing pages as well. The Feebs redact the files before handing them over so somebody whose wrist is sore from crossing stuff out might start pulling whole pages. One tip: the last page of a serial usually has an asterisk after the page number. If you don’t find one it may have been tossed.
Most serials are also “captioned” with your name and aliases (if any); an abbreviation of the crimes under investigation; and the office of origin code.
The Feebs love forms and have hundreds of them in use. You’ll see references to them that you can decode here. You knew the FBI was a bureaucracy, right?
Redaction
Of course the government needs to protect the few secrets bleeding-heart liberals haven’t already ratted out to Al-Qaeda. So your file may be heavily censored to protect national security or the FBI’s public image.
Edited information must give the exemption type allowed under the FOIA. The exemption codes can help you understand what was cut out, as well as your chances of getting the info if you appeal.
Of course no loyal American would question the FBI. BTW, if you’ve read this far the NSA probably has your number. Just saying.
The Storage Bits take
We can’t expect underpaid and overworked bureaucrats to maintain good intelligence on us, our families and our neighbors, without help. You can help by getting your file and your family member’s files to ensure accuracy.
The Framers designed the Constitution to protect Americans from their government. From long experience they knew the Murphy’s Law of government: if power can be abused it will be abused.
They designed an inefficient government with checks and balances and competing factions to ensure there would be lots of leaks and partisan bickering. The Bill of Rights outlawed warrantless searches, a basic prohibition that has been shredded in the name of homeland security.
The strength of America is not its government, but its Constitution and its people - a people who aren’t afraid to challenge power and fight for change. America was founded by revolutionaries, not bureaucrats, and nurtured by idealists, not ideologues.
May that spirit never die.
Comments welcome, of course. Next, when I get around to it, some words about the acres of spinning disk at the NSA’s Fort Meade.
This article is based on Phil Lapsley’s much longer post “How to Read an FBI File” on his The History of Phone Phreaking site as well as the other links. If you want to know more, Phil is the place to start.
September 29th, 2008
Blu-ray ix-nay?
Nielsen’s VideoScan service found Blu-ray’s video disk market share dropped 13.4% the week of September 14. Is this the beginning of the end for Blu-ray?
No, the Blu-ray problem is fixable. The question is, will Sony have the guts to do what it must? Sadly, that seems unlikely.
Market share bingo
Nielsen’s VideoScan service gives weekly numbers that bounce around. A 13.4% weekly decline is noise. The long-term trend is the number to watch.
Annual market share growth
Blu-ray will sell over 12 million disks so far in 2008, compared to 5.6 million all last year - over 100% growth. Sounds good except Blu-ray is still below 5% of all video disk sales.
What is clear is that Blu-ray has come nowhere near earlier predictions of a 50% market share in 2008. That’s the trend that should worry the industry.
The consumer conundrum
A good up converting player makes a DVD look a bit softer than a Blu-ray disc on a 40 inch high def display - nothing like the difference between a DVD and an old VHS tape.
I watched a DVD of Saving Private Ryan last night on a 10 foot screen with an HD projector and 5.1 sound - and it looked fabulous. So why would I lay out $25 to upgrade SPR to Blu-ray?
The Storage Bits take
Blu-ray vendors need to understand that Blu-ray’s advantage over DVD isn’t as great as they thought it would be 5 years ago. DVDs were supposed to look terrible on HDTV - but thanks to good, cheap upconverting DVD players they look good.
I’ve bought some of my favorite movies in Blu-ray, like The Fifith Element and Hellboy - hey, there’s Milla Jovovich’s nipple! - and I can see the difference Blu-ray makes. The difference is modest, even on a 10 foot screen.
Blu-ray won the battle against HD DVD, but they look to be losing the war for the consumer. Current pricing is unrealistic. Blu-ray players need to break $100 instead of $300 with disk street prices below $20.
Blu-ray’s modest quality advantage won’t overcome the convenience of electronic delivery. If Hollywood wants to be selling DVDs in 5 years, they need to make Blu-ray an affordable standard.
Comments welcome, of course.
September 23rd, 2008
Fast, tough pocket storage
I’ve owned a couple of dozen flash drives starting back when they were a dollar a megabyte. Several of them have broken - usually when most needed.
But I’ve found a flash drive that not only handles the rigors of my car-keys-and-change pocket, but has also survived the washing machine. And looks good enough for a business meeting - not scratched and chipped like painted or hard plastic thumb drives - after 6 months of use.
And it is fast - something I hadn’t appreciated until I tested it. That is important with a 16 GB thumb drive. Just last Friday I loaded it up with 12 GB of HDV video files to drop off to my editor and it only took about 15 minutes.
A product Storage Bits likes? Whoa!
So what is this wonderful gizmo? The 16 GB Corsair Voyager GT USB flash drive.
A friendly PR person sent me one about 6 months ago in hopes I would review it about 5 months ago. But Corsair makes a lot of claims about the CVGT’s durability and speed. Speed is easy to test but durability is another matter.
The CVGT - there is a non-GT model that comes in a variety of capacities - has what the Corsair web site calls “. . . performance IC-paired memory and controllers.” That may be something more than marketing hype but darned if I know what it means.
Proof/pudding
I ran a simple, non-exhaustive test on the CVGT and a 1 GB No-Name Drive (NND). A 581.5 MB QuickTime movie is written to each flash drive successively.
The empty NND took 190.5 seconds. An 80% full CVGT took 40.1 seconds. That is almost 5x faster. The Corsair web site only claims up to 4X faster performance.
I’m shocked.
The Storage Bits take
The Corsair Voyager GT drive isn’t perfect: the rubber coating makes it a little fat so you may lose use of a USB slot when the drive is inserted. And it would be nice to see a 32 GB version.
But I’ve seen them on the inter web for about $60, which isn’t that much more than flimsier and slower drives of similar capacity.
If you need a fast, reliable and capacious thumb drive, you should consider the CVGT.
Comments welcome, of course.
September 22nd, 2008
SanDisk’s music-on-flash gamble - will it work?
SanDisk and several record companies are announcing a new way to buy MP3s: slotMusic. They are loading the music on flash memory - micro-SD cards it looks like. Will this work?
Compared with downloadable MP3s, there are a couple of advantages.
First, you get the flash media. That is worth something. Secondly, presumably you get a decent copy of the album art and whatever liner notes exist - if people still do liner notes.
Many of us already have devices that can play MP3s off flash. So there is no need to buy and learn another device.
These are not large advantages but they are more than you get with MP3 downloads.
The Storage Bits take
I give SanDisk props for trying, but not much chance of success. Bits just want to be floating free on the network. Not tied down to a chip.
The record companies have a difficult business problem: they make more money selling albums than single tracks. But single tracks are what people buy on iTunes, the nation’s largest music retailer.
The brick and mortar stores that sell music also have a difficult problem. Most people have decided that iTunes provides a better music buying experience than stores do.
You can listen to samples, get good suggestions for similar music, easily buy single tracks or entire albums and rapidly download and distribute your new music to multiple devices.
No packages to unwrap, no credit card to swipe, no physical stuff to store.
The record companies are wasting their time trying to hold back the tide. They need to be looking at, as some already have, whether it even makes sense to put some artists on iTunes. Make people buy an entire CD album in order to get the popular song and, perhaps, discover what else the artist has to offer.
Once the music is on iTunes the labels can put together compilations of popular and not-so-popular but deserving tracks to encourage buyers to expand their musical horizons.
What is not going to happen is a return to the days when people would buy physical media as a general rule. Downloading is too convenient and practical to be replaced by any physical media.
Comments welcome, of course. Update: I added the name and the format of the flash device.
September 16th, 2008
Your capacity will vary
By an increasing amount
Why is your storage capacity always less, sometimes a lot less, then what you see advertised on the box? There is only one rule: you will never get the capacity the vendor advertises.
Storage vendors don’t mean to be lying. They just have a world view that you and your OS don’t happen to share. In their minds their numbers are justifiable.
The disk problem
The major cause of disk drive capacity shrinkage is the difference between how disk drives measure capacity and how your computer measures capacity.
Memory, like the RAM, is measured in powers of two. A gigabyte of RAM is really 1,073,741,824 bytes of capacity.
Disk capacity is measured in powers of 10. Thus any gigabyte of disk capacity is one billion bytes.
Your computer measures hard disk capacity in a power of two. Thus 1 million bytes of disk becomes 977 kilobytes and you just lost 2.3% of your apparent capacity.
As disk drives get bigger the problem gets worse. Here’s a table comparing binary powers to decimal powers:
Officially, disk vendors have the standards bodies on their side: a MB is officially defined as 1,000,000 bytes. What the memory vendors should use are the binary prefixes kibi, mibi, gibi and the like. The bi stands for binary. Who knows, someday it might catch on.
But even most computer publications stick to the old, unofficial definitions that we all use. The disk drive vendors should switch from decimal to binary prefixes because that is how operating systems measure drive capacity.
And as the table above shows the problem is only getting worse as disk capacities grow.
The array problem
Disk arrays have a different problem: raw capacity vs protected capacity. Raw capacity is simply the sum - in decimal - of the capacity of the disk drives in the array. A 4 drive array with 1 TB drives has a 4 TB raw capacity.
But unless you use RAID 0 striping, which doesn’t protect your data - lose 1 drive and all your data goes away - your usable capacity will be less. Far less.
With a 4 drive RAID array - like one I recently tried to test - RAID 5 will give you 3 drives worth of capacity, saving 1 drive for parity data. BTW, I wouldn’t use such a configuration with 1 TB SATA drives: you have a 25% chance of losing data during a rebuild.
Much more reliable is a mirrored configuration. With a 4 drive array mirroring would give you 2 TB of protected capacity - only 50% or your raw capacity. But your data is much safer mirrored.
Array capacity arguments are common among enterprise array vendors - and if you were paying $5/GB raw you might be more interested in the usable capacity too. With 100’s of TB in a single array, even small percentage differences start looking big.
The Storage Bits take
There’s only 1 good strategy for dealing with storage capacity: have more storage than you need. Most enterprises run with 2-3x the capacity they need - mostly for performance reasons - but the extra comes in handy for end-of-quarter capacity spikes or slower than expected capital approval cycles.
Home users should keep 10-20% of their disk unfilled. Windows and Mac OS X are virtual memory operating systems, which means they use disk space to substitute for DRAM when main memory fills up. Without enough spare capacity the virtual memory system can’t do its job efficiently and your system slows down.
The good news: disk capacity is cheap and rapidly getting cheaper. 25 years ago disk cost $25,000 per gigabyte. Today it is less than $0.25 per gig. Fill ‘er up!
Comments welcome, of course.
September 12th, 2008
2 platter, 500GB, 2.5″ drive
Western Digital is announcing - and commencing volume shipments of - their first 2.5″ 500 GB drive. Hey, didn’t Hitachi and Samsung get there first?
Not really.
The 12.5mm Hitachi drive was too big to fit in most notebooks. Samsung’s 9.5mm drive fits - but it is 3 167 GB platters.
Why should you care? With an industry leading 250 GB/platter, the WD drive offers 2 advantages:
- Lower costs - at least to manufacture - which should help drive all 500 GB 2.5″ drive prices down.
- Higher streaming performance. Cram more bits on a platter and more bits fly by the head.
Platters aren’t expensive, but heads are. 4 heads instead of 6 should save WD $8-$10 direct manufacturing costs per drive - a big number in the cut throat world of hard drives. The MSRP is $220, but let’s see what NewEgg does with it.
They may also squeeze some power and weight advantages out of it too. Every little bit helps.
The Storage Bits take
Darn, I just bought a 320 GB drive for my notebook. Don’t really need the additional capacity, but it is American to want something better.
The more interesting question: presumably WD could stick 3 platters in the drive to create a 750 GB notebook drive. Stick 100 DVDs on your laptop, plus 100 GB of MP3s and, oh yeah, Office and all your work stuff too. I like it!
WD is on a roll. Seagate seems to be chasing after all kinds of maybe, someday markets like encrypted and hybrid drives. WD is sticking to leading edge disks and it is working for them. And for consumers of massive amounts of storage.
Comments welcome, of course.
September 9th, 2008
How to archive on disk drives
Archiving on hard drives?
Now that disk drives are cheaper per gigabyte than tape cartridges, you might be tempted to archive data on disk drives and stick them on a shelf. Don’t do it! Your data won’t last.
The reason: the bits on the hard drive will gradually lose their magnetism, sometimes in as little as 12 months. Disks automatically rewrite marginal data blocks on the fly.
That doesn’t happen when the disk is powered off.
The big guys do it
Enterprise storage arrays do disk grooming in the background. They also look for bad blocks and other problems that are less painful to fix when the system is running normally.
Some arrays spin down or even power off disks to save power and cooling while extending drive life. These systems include logic to power up drives and check the data on a regular basis.
So leave that drive plugged in!
If you want a couple of extra drives for archiving just buy some USB drives. They are cheap and work with any system. At idle they use about the same power as a nightlight.
The Storage Bits take
Disk drives are used for archiving all the time. But they aren’t just powered off and put on a shelf.
If you need that, buy a tape drive. Properly stored tapes will last for decades.
Comments welcome, of course.
August 25th, 2008
IDF and the new Mac notebooks
The Intel Developer Forum makes it clear what Apple’s new notebooks - which I predict will be announced Tuesday, September 16 - will offer. Will it be worth the wait? If longer battery life and higher performance are important to you - yes.
And if you weren’t waiting? The new designs and features may make you rethink your allegiance to Windows - as so many already have.
IDF tells us a lot
So what’s coming? Here’s what the Storage Bits crystal ball reveals:
- Quad cores. The Lenovo W700 already offers quad core computing in a large notebook. Apple dominates the high-end notebook space so they can do no less. Not on all Macs but certainly on the high end 15″and 17″ notebooks.
- Switchable graphics. Graphics cards are power hogs. Turning off a gigabyte of VRAM and the graphics chip is a big power saver. Users don’t need dedicated graphics surfing the web and reading email. This will be a feature on the high-end notebooks, while the low end Mac books will continue with integrated graphics.
- WiMax. An optional daughtercard as Bluetooth and WiFi once were, but most people laying out three large for a notebook won’t mind an extra $99.
- Solid-state disks. Since Apple controls both the hardware and the software their have unparalleled ability to leverage SSDs. Expect dual drive notebooks with a 64 GB flash drive for the OS and applications paired with a 160 GB 1.8 inch disk drive for additional capacity and performance.
- Larger memory capacity. RAM may be an energy hog but it sure makes high-end notebooks faster and more stable. Expect to see the current 4 GB memory limit go to at least 8 GB.
- RGB LED backlight. Another high-end feature that will be very attractive to the creative user. RGB backlights are not only more energy-efficient but sport a much wider color gamut than existing cold cathode fluorescent lights. You’ll be able to edit video AND color correct it on one machine.
- No internal optical drives. Apple has usually led the industry in losing old stuff and supporting new stuff. Dropping floppys. Supporting USB and FireWire. The MBA has shown the way: no optical drive and who really misses it? Blu-ray is the coming thing - but putting the current slow drives in notebooks is a recipe for customer complaints.
- Blu-ray support. One advantage to going to external optical drives is that Blu-ray is still in its infancy. I haven’t seen a notebook ready, slot loading, Blu-ray burner that is any faster than 2x. External drives can be larger, faster and easily upgraded.
- 64 bit hardware - except for RAM, where 36 bit (64 GB) HW addressing will handle growth demand for the next the next 6 years. Yes, Snow Leopard will go higher, but the hardware doesn’t need to support everything the OS can do.
- A glass trackpad the size of an iPhone screen with context-sensitive soft buttons, gestures and - long overdue - 3-button support.
- Pervasive power management. As I and others have documented, SSDs alone save very little power. In a comprehensive redesign they make much more sense.
But what will they look like?
Apple employs some of the finest industrial designers in the world. Trying to second-guess them isn’t easy - even for top designers, which I am most certainly not.
The design language will follow the MacBook Air. Bevelled edges in a slimmer and lighter case will be the norm. Expect more obvious visual cues that play off the iPhone’s black and chrome look.
Apple has lots of other technology that it can incorporate to create a real geewhiz experience. No one in the industry does it better. Whatever they do there will be some hits and some misses but the image of their design leadership will continue.
The Storage Bits take
That’s the last on Apple’s next-generation notebooks. After the announcement I’ll do a post-mortem on how well I did.
This is a critical moment for Apple. Despite the success of the iPhone and iPod, the Macbooks are Apple’s single largest product line. They have the opportunity to really strengthen the Apple brand and boost their already torrid unit sales growth.
Apple’s notebook team has been working on these products for years. Their tight HW and SW integration coupled with Microsoft’s long development cycles means that Apple will be well positioned to take market share.
Whether you are a Windows or a Mac fan the competition will benefit us all.
Comments welcome, of course.
August 14th, 2008
3D HD cellphone video: a killer app for next decade storage
Terabyte notebooks are coming in a couple of years. But what will we fill them with? Glad you asked. How about 3D HDTV cell phone footage? Don’t laugh. It’s coming.
Flashback
When I bought my first external hard drive - 30 MB for $300 - I couldn’t imagine filling it up. And that was true of each successive hard drive purchase until my interest in video. Video changes things in a way that even 10 MP photos and MP3s don’t: video eats storage.
According to Nikkei Electronics Asia
. . . the development of HDTV compatible mobile phones is progressing apace. 720p compatible processors are already here, and 1080p compatible products will likely arrive in 2008. By 2009 mobile phones will incorporate HDMI connectors.
When you start shooting HDTV with your cell phone the question is where will you keep it all? At 10 GB per hour, a terabyte notebook doesn’t look so big - especially when friends start sending you their favorite clips.
What about 3D?
Seiko Epson Corp. has developed a prototype 3-D display targeted at cell phones. Even though it is only 2 1/2 inches the display has a full 1024 by 768 resolution. Epson claims
. . . sharp, vivid 3D images over a wider viewing zone than was previously possible. While 3D displays have often traded off resolution for enhanced 3D effects, Epson has successfully improved the perceived image quality by using “step 3D pixel array” technology.
Here’s diagram of the technology, courtesy of the fine folks at Epson.
The Storage Bits take
This is a great application for 4-level MLC flash - how many thousands of hours of video will the average cell phone owner shoot? - and 3D content will drive consumer demand for 3D displays and massive storage.
If the cell phone vendors sell them - the 3D display is the weak link - the networks will also have to beef up their bandwidth. But Hollywood is looking for the Next Big Thing in home entertainment.
Right now, 3D video is the most likely prospect. There is a downside: Paris Hilton style sex videos in stunning high-def 3D.
I’ll pass.
Comments welcome, of course.
Robin Harris has been selling and marketing data storage for over 20 years in companies large and small. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
Recent Entries
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